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300
8th January 2008, 07:37 AM
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The Dow Jones finished 27 points up after a see-sawing session with investors banking on a rate cut when the US Fed meets on the 30th of this month. The Fed chairman will give a speech this Thursday which might give investors a clue as to which way the Fed will head. From some of the readings the chance of a cut is 100% with a lower chance that it will be a 50 point cut. However, the reporting season is about to start with Alcoa reporting their quarterly results this Wednesday. This marks what will probably be the cause of most investor concern and a few rough days ahead. On saying that, the market is a foreward looking beast and knowing that all is not well in the US it may have factored that in and that bad results will not shock the market.

The US is in talks with Iran after an incident between three US Navy ships and Iranian forces on Sunday. Iran is seen as the worlds biggest oil producer and this has the potential to push oil higher than the record $100 per barrel.

The ASX fell around 137 points yesterday after a very weak lead from the US on Friday. It wasn't pretty, however, some resource stocks - gold in particular - faired ok.

The RA Portfolio (RAP) probably wasn't released on the best of days, however, it didn't do as bad as it could. Both stocks felt the impact of the US lead and were down 3.45 and 3.85 percent. So far, I have only lost two cartons in the RAP value which isn't bad on such a bad day. More RAP updates tomorrow.

biskits
8th January 2008, 07:50 AM
The US is in talks with Iran after an incident between three US Navy ships and Iranian forces on Sunday. Iran is seen as the worlds biggest oil producer and this has the potential to push oil higher than the record $100 per barrel.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR]



waahhhhh didnt even hear of this one, sounds serious what forces the prices up on oil tho? Is it skittish investors or is it the cartels?

Time for a change in fuel ! :)

300
8th January 2008, 08:18 AM
The Oil price depends on supply. If the US and Iran have a scuffle in the sandpit, Iran may impose supply sanctions on the US or supply in general. If the scuffle escalates, and infrastructure is damaged, the production capabilities of Iran will decrease. This will put pressure on the global supply of oil which will push up the price. The reality is that the price will probably head north in the short term on nervous speculators, then someone will mention to the market that oil doesn't just come from the middle east and that the US, Africa, European, and Pacific oil fields are still in production status.

As a side note, the incident happened in the Strait of Hormuz - for more info click here (http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iran/220677) .

flygirrrl
9th January 2008, 04:14 AM
hmm a valid argument for non petroleum based products for the automobile industry future!

It sucks having that much reliance on a just a few major oil producers